当这次在湖北出现的新冠病毒确诊人数持续扩大，死亡人数持续增加。这种没有疫苗，没有特效药治疗的病毒，又一次让人们想起来病毒的厉害。处在当下，我们理智的了解预防方式
后不需要有恐慌的情绪，翻开中国的战疫史，我们好像也从没畏惧过。
据邓拓在《中国救荒史》一书中的不完全统计，历代发生疫灾的次数为:周代1次，秦汉13次，魏晋17次，隋唐17次，两宋32 次，元代20次，明代64次，清代74次。
当看到这组数据，会被古人顽强的生命力折服吧。
古人讲：上医治未病，中医治欲病，下医治已病。意思就是医术最高明的医生并不是擅长治病的人，而是能够预防疾病的人。
所以这场疫战也是竖在我们心中的警钟。我们若理智一点，就比如管住嘴，不信偏方就能预防很多危机的发生。
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2014年西非埃博拉病毒爆发确诊、疑似和可能感染病例17290例，其中6128人死亡。2015年3月，比尔·盖茨在TED上做了这个演讲。
When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. Thats why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.
当我还是小孩时, 我们最担心的灾害是核战争。 所以我们在地下室有个这样的筒子， 装满了罐头食物和水。 当核战争爆发时， 我们就要躲到地下室去， 蹲低身子并靠那个筒子维生。
Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesnt look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, its most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that weve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But weve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. Were not ready for the next epidemic.
今天的全球灾难最大的危险 看起来已不像这样了。 事实上，会像这样。 如果有什么东西在未来几十年里 可以杀掉上千万人， 那比较有可能是个高度传染的病毒， 而不是战争。 不是导弹，而是微生物。 部分的理由是因为 我们在核威慑上投注了很大的 精力和金钱。 但是我们在防止疫情的 系统上却投资很少。 我们还没有准备好预防 下一场大疫情的发生。
Lets look at Ebola. Im sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasnt that there was a system that didnt work well enough, the problem was that we didnt have a system at all. In fact, theres some pretty obvious key missing pieces.
让我们看看埃博拉病毒。 我相信大家在报纸上 都有读到这样的新闻， 充满了许多艰难的挑战。 用我们追踪消灭脊髓灰质炎（小儿麻痹）的 案例分析工具， 我仔细地追踪这病毒的发展。 随着疫情的发展我们可以看到， 问题不在于我们没有一套 可以使用的系统， 而是我们根本没有任何系统。 事实上我们可以看到有几个 很明显的不足。
We didnt have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didnt have a medical team ready to go. We didnt have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried.
我们找不到一群准备好了的流行病学家， 能去疫区看看病理和病情发展。 病例都是由纸上报道传来的。 信息传上线时已经很晚了， 此外还很不准确。 我们也找不到训练有素的医护小组。 我们没有一套让人们严阵以待的方法。 目前，无国界医生 在动员志愿者上做了很大的贡献。 但即使如此，我们调动数千名 工作者到疫区的速度 还是十分差强人意的。 大的疫情会需要我们动员 数十万的人员， 但我们没有任何人在研究治疗的方向。 也没有人在看诊断的方法。 没有人在想该用什么工具。 举个案列来说， 我们也许可以抽取生还者的血液， 处理过后，再将血浆注入 人体内来保护没得病的人。 但是这个方法从来没有试过，
So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies its quite different. Theres a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but thats just pure Hollywood.
所以有很多事都还没来得及做。 而这的确是全球性的失败。 世界卫生组织的目的是来监视流行病， 而不是来做我刚讲的事。 但是在电影中演的剧情又是另一回事。 有一群很英俊的流行病学家准备就绪， 他们到了疫区拯救了大家， 但这是纯好莱坞的剧情。
The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola Lets look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. Theres three reasons why it didnt spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time youre contagious, most people are so sick that theyre bedridden. Third, it didnt get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger.
我们的准备不足 ， 可能会导致下一场疫情， 比埃博拉病毒的危害更严重。 让我们看看埃博拉病毒在 过去一年中的发展。 大约死了一万人， 所有的死者都在西非的三个国家里。 之所以没有扩散的原因有三个。 第一个是卫生工作人员作的 很多英雄事迹。 他们找到很多病人 并防止了更多人得病。 第二个是病毒的特性， 埃博拉病毒不是靠空气传染的。 等到你有足够的传染力时， 大部分的人已经病得卧床不起了。 第三个是因为病毒没有传到都会区。 这纯粹是运气好。 如果病毒传到了都会区， 那么死亡的人数绝对不止于此。
So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while theyre infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.
所以下一次我们可能不会这么幸运了。 有的病毒可能让你毫无察觉， 但当感染病毒的人乘飞机或者去逛商场， 他们其实已经具有一定的传染力了。 此外病毒的来源可以是 天然的，像埃博拉病毒， 或是由生物恐怖攻击产生的。 所以可以让疫情惨上千倍的 病毒是存在的。
In fact, lets look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So heres what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.
事实上，让我们来看看一个病毒 由空气传染的模型， 像1918年的西班牙流感。 疫情有可能像这样发展： 病毒会以很快的速度向全世界蔓延。 你可以看到全球有三千万人 死于这个疾病。 这就是个很严重的问题。 我们绝不应该忽视。
But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. Weve got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where theyre moving. We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.
但事实上我们可以建立 一个很好的反应系统。 我们可以利用所有发展至今的科技和科学。 我们可以用手机 来收集信息和发布信息。 我们有卫星地图可以看到 人们在哪里和往哪移动。 我们在生物学上也有进展， 这可以大幅缩短我们找到病原的时间， 并可以在很短的时间里找出解药和疫苗。 所以我们是有工具的， 但这些工具必须统合在 一个全球健康系统下。 此外我们必须处在准备好的状态。
The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go. We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies? So they are absolutely ready to go. So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.
而我们如何做好准备， 最好的案列还是来自于备战。 对军人来说，他们是随时随地 都准备好要投入战争的。 我们还有预备军人， 能使备战人口大量增加。 北约组织有个机动小组， 可以很快地行动起来。 北约组织有很多战争游戏可以测试 人员是否已训练有素？ 他们是否了解燃油，补给 和相同的收音机频率？ 是的话，那么他们就已准备好了。 这些就是面对疫情时我们该准备的事。
What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. Thats where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where well see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people whove got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military. taking advantage of the militarys ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didnt go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced R